A Look Ahead: Predicting Lithuania’s 2020 Olympic Men’s Basketball Roster
David Stol is back for another addition of A Look Ahead. Today we will be predicting what we think the potential roster for Lithuania’s 2020 Olympic Men’s Basketball Team might be. David is a writer for Canada Basketball, as well as blogger, with a lot of knowledge on the NBA and the international scene. If you would like to check out more of David’s writing, you can visit his website, Ball With Stol, link below.
Lithuania Olympics
The Lithuanian senior men’s national team has found itself in a middling position over the past decade, but with constant development at the senior level, the country has enjoyed a steady climb in the competitiveness of it’s program. The team finished 9th in the 2017 FIBA EuroBasket Final Round and 7th in the 2016 Olympic Games, but if one word were to define the Lithuanian senior men’s program, it would be “progress.” The senior team has managed to medal in a number of recent qualifiers, but at some point, a national team has to hope to move past the point of celebrating qualifications and look towards making their mark consistently on the international stage – Lithuania has reached that point.
The country currently ranks sixth in the world in the Men’s FIBA World Rankings (respectable to say the least), yet ranks an incredible third in the world in the Boy’s FIBA World Rankings. While Lithuania has a long way to go to reach the status of perennial powerhouses such as Spain or France, and has less potential in their youth program than Canada, the country will be knocking on the door in Tokyo for a chance to prove why they’ve been dubbed one of the best programs in the continent.
David’s Starting Five
1. Mantas Kalnietis (PG)
Kalnietis has a lot of intriguing aspects as a point guard: he has good size for the position at 6’5” (which allows him to play a combo-guard role), has the speed to allow him to stay on the floor regardless of the matchup, and has a wealth of experience in the program. He’s been the lead playmaker for Lithuania for the past fourteen years (both in the youth and senior levels) and while he’ll be well into his 30s by the time the Olympics take place, experience is always going to be the most valuable commodity in international basketball. Sure, he has a skinny frame and he’ll never be a go-to scoring option for a team, but he’s the scrappy defender and consistent playmaker that Lithuania will be looking to have leading the office in two years time.
2). Renaldas Seibutis (SG)
Seibutis will be 35 by the time the 2020 Olympics roll around, but a combination of maturity, size, and improved shooting ability should warrant him a starting role at the shooting guard position. His NBA career isn’t anything to write home about, but Seibutis’ experience bouncing around the EuroLeague and his career with the national team has given us more than enough of a sample size.
His game resembles that of a less-athletic Brent Barry, which actually amounts to a pretty versatile player. He certainly doesn’t have the speed that made him a standout in Lithuania years ago and his defence has gone downhill over the years, but he’s still able to slash to the basket and his long-range shooting has become more consistent with age. He’s not the scorer he used to be, but his combination of skills, including good playmaking ability, will give the Lithuanian offence the versatility it craves.
3. Jonas Mačiulis (SF)
If I had to describe Mačiulis’ game in a single word, it’d be “scrappy.” Mačiulis plays like the middle-aged guy in every pickup game that knows that every game might be his last: he’s throwing elbows, scrambling for every loose ball, and dodging picks like Neo from The Matrix. His effort and willingness to leave it all on the court is definitely his calling card, but Mačiulis can also spread the floor and can score pretty well in the paint, especially when he’s crashing the offensive boards. Basically, he’s an ideal “jack of all trades, master of none” type of guy.
4. Domantas Sabonis (PF)
As a son of Basketball Hall of Famer Arvydas Sabonis, Sabonis has already had more exposure to the game at just 22 years old than most people have in their entire career. Sabonis began his professional career at 16 before heading to Gonzaga to compete in the NCAA for two seasons, eventually getting drafted in the first round of the NBA Draft.
Heading into Tokyo in a couple years, Sabonis will likely be the most talented player on the Lithuanian roster, if he isn’t already. In his sophomore season with the Pacers last year, Sabonis has a fairly pedestrian year in terms of statistics, but his game had clearly evolved and grown from the year prior. He was in better shape, extended his range, started to work on using his right hand, and was a much stronger presence on the interior. Despite his youth, this steady development is promising and is a big reason why I think he’ll be starting for Lithuania in 2020.
5. Jonas Valančiūnas (C)
Having two Jonas’ in the same starting lineup is a bold move and one I always recommend against for the sake of confusion, but it’s impossible to keep the face of Lithuanian basketball off the starting lineup. Valančiūnas became the face of the Lithuanian program not simply because his beard makes him look like he just strolled out of the mountains of Juozapinė Hill, but because he’s poured years into the program to help bring it to the height that it’s reached today.
Heading into his seventh season in the NBA and with 10 years of experience under his belt with the national team, Valančiūnas will be entering Tokyo as one of the most experienced and matured players the roster has to offer. In terms of on-court production, Valančiūnas will be the best interior defender on the team, a valuable scorer from the post and the midrange, a reliable pick-and-roll option, and the owner of the most inexplicably effective pump-fake the world has ever seen. In two years’ time, Valančiūnas is just going to be entering his prime and will be poised to add the toughness and experience needed in the international game.
David’s Bench
6. Paulius Jankūnas (PF)
Debuting for the Lithuanian national team in 2003, Jankūnas will be heading into Tokyo as a 36-year-old and one of the most seasoned veterans on the roster. However, despite his age, Jankūnas is far from washed up. This past season, Jankūnas was named to the All-EuroLeague second team, in large part due to his scrappy and versatile defence. He’s carved out a role in the power forward position in the second half of his career, with an ability to post up, rebound, and defend multiple positions. Jankūnas’ low-post scoring and ability to defend on both the interior and perimeter will make him a valuable asset off the bench in a couple years.
7. Mindaugas Kuzminskas (SF)
If you follow the NBA fairly closely, you might’ve described Kuzminskas as “Oh, he’s that white guy on the Knicks! No, not Ron Baker…Mundungus? No that can’t be right.” I know I did, but you can’t really blame me. Kuzminskas barely played in the NBA and when he did it was still for the Knicks (he eventually got released in 2017 when Joakim Noah came back from a suspension…damn that has to sting). But just because he didn’t carve out a firm role in the NBA doesn’t mean Kuzminskas won’t be a key contributor to Lithuania in a couple years.
The two aspects you need to know about Kuzminskas’ game? He can shoot and he can cut, doing both really, really well. With a quick release and a consistent percentage from behind the arc, Kuzminskas balances his shooting with an ability to cut off-ball and the hands to finish when his guards find him. He’s often a negative on defence, but his scoring and ability to stretch the floor make him a key asset off the bench for Lithuania.
8 . Marius Grigonis (SF/PF)
At the age of just 24, Grigonis already has one Olympic Games under his belt with the national team and Tokyo will be yet another opportunity to play under the bright lights and represent his country. Grigonis currently plays for Žalgiris Kaunas in the Lithuanian Basketball League and has quickly become one of the most exciting players in the league.
Like his teammate Kuzminskas, Grigonis is a deadly shooter but has a very different playstyle. His shot-selection is…J.R. Smith-esque, which is both terrifying and mesmerizing. He can slash and play both the small forward and power forward positions, but what stands out about Grigonis is his ability to make extremely ambitious shots. He has a relatively slow release, but with range like his and the talent to hit his shots both off the catch and off the dribble, there’s little doubt that Grigonis can be a lethal scorer off the bench for Lithuania a couple years from now.
9. Adas Juškevičius (PG)
Juškevičius will most likely be heading into Tokyo as the backup point guard for the Lithuanians, but if he is indeed given the responsibilities to man of the offence off the bench, it’ll be a fairly new role for the 29-year-old. As a shoot-first guard, Juškevičius loves to shoot off the dribble and use his speed to get open off the ball, but with his quickness and ability to see the floor, the team will likely look for him to facilitate the offence with the second unit. However, as much as he likes to shoot, Juškevičius’ certainly has the talent to play point guard if he’s willing to alter his playstyle accordingly.
10. Robertas Javtokas (C)
Heading into Tokyo at age 40, Javtokas will be well past his prime, but he’d be welcomed with open arms by the Lithuanians as a defensive anchor and an occasional finisher at the rim. Earlier in his career, Javtokas was an athletic freak – I mean, he looked like a damn Lithuanian Kenyon Martin! But nowadays, following a retirement from professional basketball, the question would be whether Javtokas would be willing to make a comeback. With seemingly eons of basketball experience under his belt, Javtokas would be worth bringing aboard just for his experience, let alone his size and strength, but as he continues to age, the chances of him continuing with the national team seem to fade more and more.
11. Vaidas Kariniauskas (PG/SG)
At 24, Kariniauskas is currently one of the younger players in the senior Lithuanian program, but after joining the team as a replacement last summer, it’s hard to think he’d be left off the team after a promising career since Rio 2016. Kariniauskas is technically a combo-guard but is much more equipped to play the shooting guard position with limited playmaking ability. He’s a pretty good slasher with impressive footspeed and solid ballhandling (only with his left hand), and his shot mechanics aren’t horrible. Overall, Kariniauskas is more a young prospect than a player who’s ready to come in and dominate at this point in his career, but the building blocks are there for him to continue to take steps forward following more Olympic experience.
12. Edgaras Ulanovas (SF)
Ulanovas has had a fairly decorated professional career to this point and, at 26-years-old, it’s hard to think that won’t translate into him cracking the Olympic roster in two years. In 2014, Ulanovas was named the Co-VTB United League Young Player of the Year, along with Dmitry Kulagin. In 2017, he was named the MVP of the 2017 King Mindaugas Cup, and also the MVP of the 2017 LKL Finals.
However, after being replaced by Kariniauskas in Rio due to injury, 2020 could very well be Ulanovas’ first chance to represent his country on the biggest stage. As a versatile forward, Ulanovas’ consists of a reliable post game, an ability to slash to the rim off the dribble and create his own scoring opportunities, and an aptitude for knocking down open threes (with one of the ugliest releases in the country, but he still knocks them down). Overall, Ulanovas would be a solid addition to the Lithuanian lineup after getting his opportunity stolen from him by injuries two years ago.
David’s Young Prospects
1. Gytis Masiulis (PF/SF)
At just 20 years of age, power forward Masiulis has quickly become one of the most exciting prospects in Lithuanian basketball and an integral part of why the youth program is now ranked third in the world. In this year’s FIBA U20 European Championship, Masiulis averaged an impressive 18.3 PPG and 9.0 RPG, leading the team in both categories.
He’s really skinny for the position, but surprisingly mobile to balance out his lack of size. That agility allows him to glide to the rim and, despite his lack of muscle, he finishes through contact pretty consistently. Despite his decent shot mechanics, I honestly don’t think his shooting is good enough to allow him to play small forward on the perimeter and he may be too small to score at the same rate at the senior level. That being said, he’s been playing professional basketball against grown men since 2014, so his introduction to the Olympics may not be as ambitious a step as it may initially seem.
2. Matas Jogela (SF)
At the small forward position, Jogela also made his mark throughout the FIBA U20 European Championship earlier this year, scoring 16.0 PPG and averaging 2.2 SPG, producing on both ends of the floor. My key takeaway from the tournament? The kid is an incredible athlete. He’ll dunk on absolutely anyone, has a long frame, and is quick enough to lead the fast break throughout an entire tournament. He knocks down threes at a decent percentage, although his form needs some work, but there’s little doubt he could come in immediately as a sparkplug off the bench for the Lithuanians.
Shotaro’s Picks
For my starting five there are several picks that may not be popular, as they aren’t necessarily based on purely the players talent, but who I think will make the team most effective. Unlike David, I have included my young prospects as part of my teams final roster, hoping they pan out and make the team. As I believe my starting front court is pretty well a lock, my starters will feature perimeters players who can launch more threes and get the ball to the big men in transition. Now here are my choices for my starting five.
Shotaro’s Starting Five
1. Lukas Lekavicius (PG)
Despite longtime point guard and Lithuania's captain Mantas Kalnietis being the most likely starter, I’m going to go with Lukas Lekavicius. He is quite a bit shorter than Kalnietis in stature at only 183cm, but has many qualities that could serve as a reason to consider him over the long time point man.
Lukas thrives in the pick and roll often choosing to step behind the screen and taking threes or deep two’s. He shoots at a relatively high clip, hovering around .486% from deep. Although not a starter for his league team, he contributes valuable time and can be trusted to make smart decisions. He is a more viable offensive option than Mantas, although is no where near the defender. He currently serves on the second unit of the Lithuanian team, but with still two years to go, things may change. Who starts the point for Lithuania could really just boil down to match-ups. Lukas also is a great fit for both the front court players on the starting five, which we will get to later.
2. Marius Gringonis (SG)
The shooting guard position has a lot of depth for the Lithuanian team, so really many choices could fill the role. I’m going to go with Marius Gringonis for quite a few reasons. For instance, he is the tallest (198cm) and the youngest (24), of shooting guard options at the senior level. This youth and length makes him possibly the best on ball defender. He rarely gives up an easily layup, often forcing smaller guards outside of the paint, while keeping his hand active. His pick and roll defence is also pretty strong, showing toughness fighting through picks, often opting to go over rather than under the screen.
Gringonis’s shortcomings come in the form of offence. He struggles getting to the rim at times as his handle hinders him somewhat. His shooting although good, just isn’t a go to option for a team, and as David said before his shot selection is questionable at times. His decision making in the pick & roll seems to be indecisive, often resorting to a kick out due to getting trapped by a defenders. His offensive game isn’t all bad, as he moves the ball with quickness and unselfishness, placing his teammates in position to be successful. His defencive prowess and his desire to play team basketball on the offensive side makes him a solid start for a team that has plenty of players that can score.
3. Mindaugas Kuzminskas (SF)
Kuzminskas had a short NBA career, but even at the top level despite his deficiencies could get buckets. He is a scorer and at times shows you flashes of a great stroke. He is certainly tall enough at 6' 9" (205.75 cm), to dunk and grab ally-ops. All these skills made him a potential NBA player. The problem came with his foot speed that was a liability, especially against elite athletes. His scoring ability, especially his jumper will prove to be very useful spreading the floor, which will help both the starting bigs. He isn’t an inefficient scorer having a career field goal percentage of .479, but he may keep shooting even if he isn’t scoring. Ultimately, he will be a good option to get his team some points, and is the most offensively talented of the starting back court.
4. Domantas Sabonis (PF)
Hard not to give the nod to young Sabonis. Son of the Lithuanian basketball legend Arvydas Sabonis, he has been raised to play the game, and is now forging his own career. He had a slow start to his NBA career, but his growth over the past couple of seasons has been exponential. He has games for the Pacers where he can help takeover with Victor Oladipo. Even though he comes off the bench behind Myles Turner, who is a better defender, Sabonis can come into a NBA and give you solid numbers. Even in a bench role, he is averaging 14.1 PPG on .638 FG%. He is great in the pick and role, often looking to rim run to grab alley oops and dumps for easy buckets.
Domantas’s post game is not his strength like his father who could bully people around more. What Domanta’s did inherit his is passing ability, which for a big man is quite highly developed. His face up offensive game is good showing a nice jumper from 10–15 feet out. This may be more a result of the game moving away from back to the basket, rather than inherently a weakness. His position as a front court presence for the national team seems fairly cemented.
5. Jonas Valencunias (C)
Possibly the most famous current Lithuanian player is the Raptor’s Jonas Valencunias (maybe only because my friends are all Raptors fans). As a starter over the last 4 seasons he’s averaged over 12 PPG, on roughly .560 FG%, while also snagging almost 9 RPG. He has seen his role somewhat diminished this year, due to the arrival of Kawhi and Danny Green. They have opted to move Ibaka to the five, to play more small ball. This move isn’t a display of Jonas’s lack of skill however as he provide great value to the number one seed in the East.
Jonas does quite a few things effectively, he plays off the pick and roll quite well, and has a jumper from 12 feet out. He isn’t the necessarily most athletic, but his strength and size makes him a decent rim runner. He is often able to counter his lack of explosiveness with some refined post moves. He can often get defenders off their feet through fakes or with good footwork. His post game is more refined then Sabonis, and he’s a little less quick, so that’s why he will be the anchor in the middle. There are many aspect to his game that the Lithuanian team can ultimately use to make a decent run come Tokyo 2020.
Shotaro’s Bench
6.Mantas Kalnietis (PG)
There isn’t much more to say about Mantas Kalnietis’s game that David already hasn’t gone through. He isn’t the most gifted or the best scorer, but is the heart of the Lithuanian team and has been for some years. He has fought through injury at various points in his career and he simply loves basketball. You can find videos of him in tears after some tough losses. He is a big point guard who will make smart plays and can defend very well. It’s hard to relegate him to the bench, but opting for a more skilled starting five may be the way to go. This isn’t to say that Kalnietis isn’t able to score, but the fact he will also be in his mid thirties by the time the Tokyo Games start, suggests it may be the best option for him to come off the bench.
7. Edgaras Ulanovas (SF)
Edgaras Ulanovas is an interesting player that can add some three and d to this team. He isn’t a great ball handler, and should be looked to for set jump shots. Last season with Zalgiris Kaunas he was able to record a career high in three point percentage .457. He is 6'6" (1.98m), meaning he can struggle with bigger small forwards, but is often quick enough to stay in front of them. He can also play passing lanes fairly well. He seems like a solid choice who will be 28 by the start of Tokyo 2020. He has also won 4 gold medals at various world championships, and has been part of a winning culture wherever he’s been.
8. Donatas Motiejūnas (PF/C)
Motiejūnas is a 7 footer who can play either front court position. Nicknamed “D-Mo”, as often referred to during his time with the Rockets, he ultimately gives a lot of experience to the bench. Not known for his pick and roll like the other starting big men, he utilizes passing from a post position and crafty post moves to get his points. He runs the floor well for such a tall player, as he doesn’t carry the most weight. Motiejūnas’s smaller frame (101kg) can be pushed around sometimes, as his time with the Rockets and Pelicans showed him more suitable for a PF. His jumper is relatively none existent, meaning his option as a stretch four isn’t there. Regardless of his shortcomings is some aspects, he is a talented player currently playing in China for the Shandong Golden Stars. He is capable of getting you a double double on any given night and is a valuable player to have. His history of back injury can be a little concerning, but aside from that he is a great pick.
9. Laurynas Birutis (C)
Kind of a risky pick to make the roster, since there are so many talented big man capable of playing center on my roster. The reason I wanted to add Laurynas is because of his potential to resemble a modern big man with range. He is only 21 years of age, and already possess a decent stroke from outside, coupled with enough size to score in the interior. Obviously it would absurd to compare him to Joel Embid, but he does show that he can spaces the floor. He still has time to gain some strength and fill out his 7' 1" (216cm) body before the Tokyo 2020 Olympics.
10. Artūras Milaknis (SG)
Artūras Milaknis has to be included on the this list for one main reason. Yes he is currently listed as the starting shooting guard of Lithuania’s National Team and has the ability to play multiple positions. He is also a fairly strong shooter with a career FG% of .448, and has many crafty moves in his arsenal. However the thing that sets him apart from the others is his nickname as the Eurpoean “White Mamba”. He is named after the undisputed G.O.A.T, Brian Scalabrine. He was invited to the Dallas Mavericks training camp, but failed to make the roster simply because it would not have been fair to the rest of the NBA. I expect the white mamba to make his presence felt in 2020.
Shotaro’s Young Prospects
11. Rokas Jokubaitis (PG)
Rokas is just 17 and is already playing for one of the best professional teams in Lithuania, with BC Zalgiris. You may have heard his name before, as he stole the spotlight from LiAngelo and LaMelo in there very first episode of their web show. The left handed point guard has multiple strengths, including a great handle he uses to dance by his defender. Rokas displays a soft touch when finishing at the rim and a solid jumper. He is only about 185 cm, but it doesn’t seem to effect his scoring ability. At times Rokas can resort to lots of iso ball rather than focusing on ball movement, but his passing and court vision is by no means weak.
Jokubaitis has always had potential since a young age, and has competed for Lithuania’s junior program for multiple tournaments. At his most recent international tournament, the 2018 U-18 FIBA European Championships, he put up some impressive numbers: 12.9 PPG, 2.9 RPG, and 5.6 APG. This would help Lithuania place 5th out of the 16 teams. There is a great article on him posted on FIBA’s website, the link is below.
12. Deividas Sirvydis (SF)
Deividas Sirvydis is a fellow teammate of Jokubaitis for the U-18 Lithuanian basketball team. He also shows some similar traits of Rokas, in that he is a left handed player capable of some nice finishing around the basket. His handle isn’t as good as his point guard teammate, but his ability to finish with either hand is quite impressive. One moment you see him flush a dunk with his right hand, and the next pay hitting a three with his lefty jumper. Considering he is only 18 years old, he has to put on some muscle on his frame to contend with older players. Luckily he has a year and a half to improve his body before attempting to make the roster.
Deividas has had quite a few successful displays during tournaments. At the same 2018 U-18 European Championships as Rokas, Sirvydis put up 12.3 PPG, 3.3 RPG and 2.9 APG. He also was invited to Adidas’ Next Generation Tournament that features upcoming talent. He would take the MVP awards, showcasing just how skilled he is among his fellow peers. I think the Deividas has all the necessary skills to be able to vie for a position on an Olympic roster. It may not happen by Tokyo 2020, but his future seems bright.
So there you have it, another addition of A Look Ahead, featuring writer David Stol. I hope you got to learn a thing or two about the true talent Lithuanian basketball has to offer on the court. We are excited for what drama the upcoming 2020 Tokyo Olympics will present, and it quite possible we see Lithuania at the center or it!
If you would like to contact me, you can reach me at Shotarohmoore@hotmail.com
