Will the coronavirus cancel Tokyo 2020?
This year has started off with a number of large scale news stories that have dominated the headlines and rightfully so. The massive bush fires in Australia, The US-Iranian conflict that seemingly spelled “World War 3”, and Japan’s high profile escape of Carlos Gohn. While these issues are having various impacts on peoples lives, none other has been more apparent than the spread of the COVID -19 coronavirus.
To date it has been confirmed that the coronavirus has killed more than 3000 people and infected roughly 90,000 worldwide. It has spread to many corners of the world and was declared an international health crisis on January 30th by the World Health Organization. While the lives lost and the prevention moving forward should rightfully be the most meaningful story that should be covered by the media, the effect of the coronavirus is far ranging.
Japan, being in close proximity to China, is naturally one of the countries most worried about the virus spreading throughout its nation. If the virus were to continue on its current trajectory, there are many people wondering just what kind of impacts would this have.
Tokyo 2020 Organisers & Government Try To Squash Rumors
Lots of speculation has circulated throughout the internet about the games being at risk of experiencing some forms of cancellation or delay due to the outbreak of the virus. As the COVID-19 virus continues to spread these rumors will only continue. As of March 1st, there are a reported 256 cases in Japan. It is important to note that these cases reported across Japan, do not include the roughly 700 confirmed infected patients on the quarantined cruise ship docking in Yokohama. It also must be said that compared to Korea, which has over 4000 cases, testing in Japan is not being implemented on a widespread basis, thus reflecting in the number being much lower.
Despite all the gossip, the organisers have come out and said that the games will continue as planned with little in the way of set backs. Oraganising committee president Yoshiro Mori had a strong message back in early February.
“I would like to make it clear again that we are not considering a cancellation or postponement of the games. Let me make that clear.” — Yoshiro Mori
A few weeks later with the virus continuing to spread, there has been no message contradicting this statement. This sentiment was not only coming from the Tokyo 2020 organisers, but also from the government. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe followed up a few days later with the following statement.
So all indication from domestic sources are suggesting that the games will continue. Of course they have to present a calm demeanor at this point, to avoid any kind of doubt in the eyes of investors and scare any potential tourists. The fact is that Japan has already spent a lot of time, money and effort on the games. Not moving forward at this stage would be a massive disappointment. Regardless, it is still comforting that the organisers are echoing the positive messages. Don’t forget that there was rumblings of cancellations of both 2010 and 2016, but they ultimately proceeded.
IOC Member Claims Cancellation Is A Real Possibility
While those in Japan are doing the best to contain the notion of the games not moving forward, those abroad aren’t as hesitant to voice the possibility of a cancelation. As widely reported last week, a senior member of the International Olympics Committee said that if the coronavirus keeps spreading, than the games could possibly be canceled altogether, not rescheduled.
This came from the veteran IOC member Dick Pound, who is currently their longest serving member, joining in 1978. He believes that ultimately the Tokyo organiser have three months to decide whether to continue the games or not.
Pound not only expressed that the decision needs to be made sometime before May, but also that he believes if the games are deemed too dangerous for competition, that the games will not be delayed or moved but rather canceled outright. This is due to TV scheduling issues, among other things.
While this sounds dire, Pound did explicitly say that as of right now, it is a go.
President Thomas Bach on the other hand, was not so quick to suggest similar thoughts of cancelation, saying that he is committed to the current schedule in place. He did address Pound’s comments briefly, simply stating,
“I’ll not add fuel to the flames of speculation.” — Thomas Bach
Current Prevention Protocols
While it seems undeniable that the World Health Organisation was delayed in their response, seemingly hesitant to declare it an international health risk, Japan’s government has been met with both praise and criticism for their handling of the situation.
The Japanese government decided to evacuate all Japanese citizens in Wuhan, which many people supported, and they were subsequently placed in quarantine. Much of the negative news has surrounded the controversial decision to place a quarantine aboard a cruise ship in Yokohama named “The Diamond Princess”. The virus as one would expect has rampantly spread throughout the ship. That is where the vast majority of the cases remain currently.
However, despite their efforts to keep the virus from the general public, cases have been popping up all over Japan. From a bus driver who carried Chinese tourists, to a taxi driver who fatally exposed his mother in-law to the virus, cases are sprouting daily. Japan adopted a ban on people coming from certain areas of China, but it seems due to the nature of the diseases effects often laying dormant, it was nearly impossible to screen for at that time.
As of late February, the prevention measures ramped up. Shinzo Abe and Tokyo’s governor advised that all large scale events be canceled. This includes baseball games, music concerts and even school graduation ceremonies. On top of simply the ceremonies Shinzo Abe urged all schools to prematurely shut down for spring break. Businesses are also allowing many of their employees to work remotely at this time.
These forms of self quarantine are being enacted sooner rather than later in part so that they can deem the situation under control as early as possible. If the spread can be limited early on, Tokyo 2020 may be able to be declared as on schedule sooner rather than later.
Effect On The Games
When events such as these occur, which involves thousands of deaths, with the risk to tens of thousands of lives, money seems like a trivial concern. However, the impact of the Wuhan virus on China’s economy and those closely tied to China can’t be understated.
For quite some a time in the mid-late 20th century, Japan a country void of many natural resources besides the sea, relied on their tech sector to create a prosperous economy. However, after the tech bubble economy bursted in the 90’s a transition was needed. Since the subsequent recession the industries of tourism and cultural exports became increasing more important.
The Tokyo 2020 Olympic and Paralympic Games would of course be the peak example of a cultural event that would attract tons of tourists. However due to the media’s rampant coverage, and the obvious far reaching spread, it is reasonable to think hundreds of thousands who may have chose to originally come, will cancel their trips. This is obviously devastating for an event that is officially budgeted at 12.5 billion USD. Despite this being the official report there are many costs that are unaccounted for, so it is important for the Japanese government to proceed with the games.
Will The Games Be Cancelled?
This is the big question, that obviously no one knows, but will be the hot topic for weeks to come. From the general feel here in Tokyo, having asked a variety of people, the general feeling is that 75% seem to think the games will continue, while 25% are doubtful. This also resembles my feelings on the situation as well, where I ultimately think the games will go on, but the possibility of cancelation is very real. The answer is simply that the Tokyo 2020 Games will probably continue, but there will most likely be some setbacks.